AUDUSD technicals The AUDUSD is once again struggling at familiar resistance near its 100-day moving average. Earlier today, the pair moved higher but stalled just shy of the 100-day MA — a level that also capped rallies in February and saw two failed breakouts in March. Sellers leaned against it again, reinforcing the barrier and […]
Author Archives: gtiqy
12
Apr
Apr
The USD 10-year yield has moved higher with the yield now up 15 basis points at 4.541%. For the week, the yield is up 53 basis points on the week alone. That is the largest 1 week gain since the 1980s (The lower scale on the chart above is the basis point change for the […]
12
Apr
Apr
Name a more toxic situationship than this. I’ll wait. With China’s retaliation today, it shows that Xi isn’t going to blink first and reach out. And from the looks of it, Trump also doesn’t want to budge from his position. But if something were to happen, market players will have to hope it happens soon. […]
12
Apr
Apr
US 30-year yields are down 12 basis points from the highs and now trading lower on the day. That turnaround is salvaging global risk sentiment and leading to a rise in US equity markets. The S&P 500 is now up 1.4% on the day to a session high. The market may be sensing some good […]
12
Apr
Apr
Oil rigs -9 to 480 Gas rigs +1 to 96 With oil falling into the 50s this week, I think it cements that US oil production will fall this year. The US has already drawn down its drilled-but-uncompleted wells and Tier 1 inventory is scarce. The economics of new wells make it very tough to […]
12
Apr
Apr
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not […]
12
Apr
Apr
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not […]
12
Apr
Apr
The market is now fully priced for an ECB rate cut on Thursday and Deutsche Bank economists have got on board. The economic hit from reciprocal tariffs, uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions likely exceeds what the ECB was expecting Previous ECB assumptions that tariffs would boost inflation have been challenged Recent developments including higher EUR, […]
12
Apr
Apr
I’m increasingly open to the idea that bitcoin could disconnect from the risk trade in light of risks around the US dollar and turmoil in the world. There is a strong correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq that’s been established in the last two years but it’s not iron clad. At the moment there is […]
12
Apr
Apr
The low price in the NASDAQ this week stalled at 14,784, just above the 200-week moving average, which currently sits at 14,616.37. Notably, this isn’t the first time that level has attracted support — in 2023, a similar dip found buyers just ahead of the same long-term average. The key difference then was the added […]