Author Archives: gtiqy

Fed's Collins: Calls for gradual patient approach to rate cuts

Current outlook calls for gradual, patient approach to rate cuts. Supported December Fed rate cut but was a close call. Fed not on preset path, policy well-positioned. Current outlook in line with Fed December forecasts. Economy in a ‘good place overall’ with notable uncertainties. Too soon to say what impact election will have on economy. […]

China inflation subdued despite fiscal stimulus. Structural & consumer sentiment challenge

Data is here: China December CPI +0.1% y/y (expected +0.1%, prior +0.2%) Recap (summary of a Reuters report): Consumer Price Index: China’s CPI rose by 0.2% in 2024, matching the previous year’s growth and falling well below the 3% target. December CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, slowing from 0.2% in November and marking the weakest […]

UK data – BRC Shop Price Index for December: -1.0% y/y (expected –0.4%, prior –0.6%)

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not […]

The two stark scenarios for the US in 2025: 1. Inflation and rate hikes, or 2. Recession

Adam Posen is an economist and President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He argues he expects the Fed to raise interest rates in the second half of 2025, unless the Trump Administration’s aggressive use of tariffs and deportations triggers a recession. However, it’s more likely that inflation will rise due to the combined […]

FOMC Minutes: Participants saw gradual move to more-neutral stance if data as expected

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not […]