Author Archives: gtiqy

Policy patience will allow the Fed to gather more data on the economy Fed in position to take time and assess Beings slow and reacting correctly is better than going too fast If job market holds and inflation rises, a more restrictive path is needed IF growth falters and inflation eases, Fed could cut even […]

Stock heatmap by FinViz.com Wed, 16 Apr 2025 14:46:07 GMT Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a stark divergence in sector performances. The technology sector is awash in red, with significant declines, while energy and certain areas of healthcare show resilience. 📉 Technology & Semiconductors: Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) plummeted 5.98%, leading a […]

A comparison of the March statement to the April statement reflects the “major shift” in the US trade policy and unpredictability of tariffs. Hence the second verse (April) is no where near the first (March). Below is the red line change (or rather the complete re-write) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 12, 2025 The Bank of […]

Details: Ex-autos +0.5% vs +0.3% exp Prior ex autos +0.3% (revised to +0.7%) Control group +0.4% vs +0.6% expected Prior control +1.0% (revised to +1.3%) This is a good set of headlines and the upward revisions nullify the slight miss on the control group. Never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer. Fed pricing […]

The BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.75% today. As a reminder, the BoC cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% as expected at the last meeting amid concerns over weaker growth ahead due to the trade uncertainty and US tariffs. The central bank emphasized a cautious approach to future decisions, […]

Japan is coming in today to negotiate tariffs, the cost of military support and “trade fairness”. I will attend the meeting, along with Treasury and Commerce Secretaries. Hopefully something can be worked out which is good (GREAT!) for Japan and the USA. Trump is up and running and providing updates on his schedule. Watch out […]

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 88 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 85 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 83 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 50 bps (57% probability of no change at today’s meeting) RBA: 120 bps (86% […]

After the strong rally triggered by Trump’s pause in the reciprocal tariffs, the S&P 500 hasn’t done much as the price just consolidated below a key resistance. The market has been waiting for more information on the negotiations front but as of now we haven’t got any, on the contrary, a couple of disappointing headlines […]

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not […]

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not […]